Grupo Elektra, one of Mexico's largest specialty retailers and financial services providers, swung to $124m net profit in Q3 25 from a $31m loss a year earlier, driven entirely by a $216m reversal in derivative valuations. EBITDA of the retail sector on a standalone basis is negative, while 95% of the group’s debt is held at the retail subsidiary. This makes consolidated credit metrics misleading, as they hide retail insolvency by blending profitable banking operations with loss-making retail.

The critical risk for bondholders: subsidiary Nueva Elektra del Milenio's (NEM) $350m 12.5% remittance-backed notes due 2031, currently quoted at 103.63, depend on bank branches located inside Elektra stores to channel most of their money transfer flows. If the retail sector continues to deteriorate and labor costs keep rising, Elektra may close stores. This would break the collateral pipeline that connects Elektra's 1,300+ physical stores to the securitization structure.

The company could face additional pressure from a MXN 51bn ($2.8bn) tax liability the federal government is collecting from Elektra and sister company TV Azteca, after the Mexican Supreme Court ruled last November that both are liable for the payments.