A lot can change in a few months.

Back in August, “higher for longer” wasn’t the dominant market narrative, primary was shut as bankers lounged in swimshorts and Manchester United were playing terrible football (okay, maybe things haven’t changed that much).

There was even growing optimism about a bond resurgence heading into the fourth quarter. Fast forward to the present day and we’re in a different world. 

We’ve seen the US 10-year yielding 5% for the first time in 16 years — and investors are feeling jittery over peak policy rates. 

That’s led to less-than-ideal conditions for issuers wanting to come to the bond market — and that’s been clear from the recent inactivity in European HY, especially compared to a leveraged loan market that ploughs on as CLOs continue printing.