TLDR

• €33bn of euro loans were issued in Q3 24 bringing the YTD total to €136bn — which is on track to exceed 2021 by year-end. Q3 24 volume exceeds third quarter totals from 2021-2024
• Q3 single-B margins averaged E+407bps (down from E+465bps in 2023), continuing a year-long margin compression shift as central bank rates eased throughout the year. The dispersion between B1 and B3 credits, meanwhile, widened as investors balked at ongoing macro woes
• 88% of euro loan volume has refinancing, repricing or A&E as the primary use of proceeds. But margin compression on repricings and margin uplifts in A&Es fell over the year. Repricing cut 70bps on average in Q1, then 60bps in Q2 and around 50bps in Q3, while the average margin uplift for A&Es dropped from 97.5bps in Q1 to just 25bps in Q2 and Q3
• Q3 LBO volume is down compared to Q2, but up compared to Q1, with sources predicting this dearth to drag on into 2025 as the visible M&A pipeline is thin. Instead, refis will keep up their domination: the next big maturity wall is 2028, with €130bn of euro loans due
• Upcoming potential hits — the US election, the UK budget — have accelerated the pipeline, meaning the latter half of Q4 could make for an earlier Christmas break