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Alessandro Albano

It was another week of European levfin primary inactivity. If you couldn’t tell already — the market is firmly shut for the summer. 

Good news for those of us in London who wanted to catch a glimpse of the Lionesses booking their spot in Sunday’s final. Not so good for any Aussie readers who had the same idea… 

Despite the lack of new deals, there were a few macro releases that caught our eye (and that of the market if volatility is anything to go by).

First up, Fed minutes from its July meeting suggested that US policymakers aren’t declaring victory in achieving a soft landing just yet as they “continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy.” 

In response to the minutes’ hawkish caws, the US 10-year Treasury yield landed at its highest level since 2008. That said, the market still expects July’s hike to be the last of this US tightening cycle.

This side of the Atlantic, UK inflation remains over 3 times the Bank of England's target but hikes seem to be having the desired effect in controlling price rises (even if it’s taking longer than expected). CPI printed at +6.8% in July year-over-year (+7.9% in June) and +0.4% month-over-month (+0.6% in June) — falling gas and electricity prices were the largest detractors.

Wage growth between April and June (+7.8%), however, represented the highest print since records begin in 2001 — considerably above consensus of +7.4%. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street still has some hikes to go.

In China, authorities have the problem flipped as the world’s second largest economy is now in deflation. The PBOC decided to ease by unexpectedly cutting its one-year policy interest rate by 15 basis points to 2.5% on Tuesday, the second time in the last three months. 

I’m sure we’re not alone in thinking China will be a risk for global markets that continues to rear its head after the summer break…

Soft landing scepticism intensified as Fitch warned in a report that the US high yield default rate could be as high as 5% by the end of this year (from 2.8% in July). According to the rating agency, the high interest rate environment continues “to challenge speculative-grade issuers seeking to address near-term maturities and other liquidity related stresses.”

Nevertheless, the direction of travel appears to be positive when we zoom out. 

As a result, bankers (those of them who aren’t lounging on the beach right now) have told us they’re making use of the quiet primary period to finalise pipeline for September onwards — some having an increased focus on fixed income instruments. On this note, expect to see more 9fin coverage on bonds vs loans in the coming weeks.

"Inflation is reducing so people can point to an end for rate increases,” a banker in the market said. “This brings more visibility and stability about being able to price in bond markets with fixed rates."

As we covered in our recent pipeline expectations piece, sources are expecting an uptick in deal activity for the loan market too but sponsor expectations are still remaining as a bottleneck, a similar story to the rest of 2023 so far.

The banker in the market echoed this: "We're not seeing an avalanche of deals but there is an improvement. We're still seeing some dislocation between buyers and sellers. Sellers need to get more realistic about the prices they can get."

Even if primary action has slowed to a halt, companies have been kept busy by an earnings season continuing to power on. Be sure to check out the latest edition of the Earnings Digest where the team has covered Paysafe, Versuni and Aggreko to name just a few.

One of the more eye-catching results stories amid the summer lull involved UK-based flooring firm Victoria, where auditors delayed signing off the results, knocking investor confidence. 

As mentioned in this week’s Friday Workout, “they said that the delayed audit is due to routine audit procedures with six items being tested, which were valuations of goodwill, some complexity around the reverse carve-out of Balta, testing around finalising property, plant and equipment valuations, finalisation of pension work, and finalisation of pension adjustments.”

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European LevFin Wrap — Hawks flock amid primary stop, bonds on the menu for September?

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