As we say farewell to a frenetic September, piecing together a clean market narrative to explain it all is tough — is it a pure technical picture? How rational is the exuberance in primary?

We’ve seen market yields climb (10y bund yields at post-2011 highs of 2.9% and 10y Treasury yields floating around 4.5%) as oil marches towards the psychologically significant $100 mark (worth noting that Euro CPI coming in softer than expected this morning provides some reassurance for doves).