Moving from Barbie to Bailey’s Bank of England (not a transition I’m used to writing), macro commentators had a noteworthy release of their own this week: UK CPI.

Data for June showed that inflation had a welcome dip to +7.9% (versus +8.2% expected) year-over-year — its lowest level since March 2022. The core measure also fell — landing at +6.9% (versus +7.1% expected).

It’s also worth noting that the print came in below nearly all market estimates (beneath every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg). Market fears of UK peak rates at 6%+ have receded in response to the news.

Although it might feel strange celebrating an inflation print with a high 7-handle, this supports the idea that the world is on the road to recovery from high inflation — even if the UK still has some way to go (highest inflation in the G7). 

Adding to the week’s dovish newsflow, Dutch central bank governor Knot (usually one of the most hawkish members on the Governing Council) suggested that next week’s widely expected-hike could be the last one we see from the ECB this cycle, pushing back on the prospect of a September hike.

“Beyond July it would at most be a possibility but by no means a certainty.”

This supportive macro backdrop led to cautious optimism amongst the sources we spoke to this week but some still remain unconvinced about upping their risk appetite.

A leveraged loan portfolio manager said: “We’re still not out of the woods. There’s still a decent chance of recession and that shouldn’t be discounted yet”.

When asked about the flurry of deals [specifically loans] that came to market this week, they simply said: “syndicating banks are taking advantage of temporary strength”. 

High yield

Irish electric utility company Energia Group was the week’s leading EHY deal. It priced €600m of 5NC2 SSNs at 6.875% and OID of 100 — tightening from IPTs in the 7.25% area.

A high yield portfolio manager felt like the deal was easy to understand and predicted a “decent take up”.

A sellsider concurred: “It’s fairly straightforward — it’s been in our market for a while”.

The high portfolio manager also pointed to it being a “safe, solid credit which is kicking out constant cash” which would work in its favour as “people want quality” — supporting the idea that market sentiment is still recovering and investors continue to be smart with risk.

In a pretty quiet week for EHY issuance, they also said that the deal would benefit from a lack of competition.

“People need stuff to look at — that will generate interest in itself.”

Inactivity was predicted to continue as we enter into the usual summer lull period for markets.

“There’s nobody in during August — that and December are dead months.”

Of course, one of the biggest stories of the week in EHY was around the Altice complex. We won’t spend any extra time digging into that here but please check out 9fin’s coverage/analysis on the name here, here and here.

Also make sure to check out this week’s Earnings Digest as we navigate another important earnings season for EHY markets.

Leveraged loans

In loan land, deals continued to flow. Unlike the usual glut of A&E transactions we’ve seen this year, aptly-named German software company Software AG was a long-awaited big new money deal — funding Silver Lake’s take-private.

A €1bn-equivalent 2030 dual-currency TLB was launched, split across euros and dollars (minimum $400m). Price talk is OID of 97 and spread of 500bps over Euribor and SOFR respectively.

A second sellsider praised the arrival of a deal fuelled by M&A — and crossed fingers that it’s a sign of things to come.

“Hopefully these are the sort of deals we see in the second part of the year.”

They also noted the large dual-currency nature of the deal: “because it is huge it can have access to the European and US markets [via its USD tranche]”.

Timing of the deal was also noteworthy and added to their feeling that this deal should go according to plan — though progress may have partly been dictated by the tender offer for the shares, which closed on July 17.

“I think the timing is good because market sentiment is strong at the moment and there's very little supply. Just before August is when investors have got time due to less opportunities on their desk.”

German packing company Syntegon came to market with a TLB add-on due 2028 — the deal has been upsized to €115m (from €100m), with pricing settling at E+390bps and 95.5 OID (from the 95-95.5 area).

The leveraged loan portfolio manager said that now was a “good time in the markets for an opportunistic add-on”. 

On pricing they said: “It seems fair but ultimately 390bps will be too low for me to get involved”.

Although they expected the deal to “do well”, the leveraged loan portfolio manager made sure to mention that it “has its challenges”. Moody’s seems to agree with the latter point given that it downgraded Syntegon’s outlook to negative from stable this week”:

“The negative outlook reflects Syntegon's highly leveraged capital structure and Moody's expectation for a delayed deleveraging trajectory compared to our previous estimates, with Moody's-adjusted gross leverage expected to be around 8.0x in 2023 and potentially remaining above 6.0x in 2024.”

Inspired Education clearly, well, inspired, with its €350m TLB deal tightening to 98.5-99 OID (from 98-98.5) ahead of commitments. That makes two single B names touching 99 this week (IQ EQ’s euros also hit 99) and signals strong sentiment for the final run into the summer break.

“It’s another education business with steady income, steady fees, very low attrition,” said one buysider. “They’re interchangeable — you can copy and paste your analysis from one to another to be honest with you.”

The deal is marketed on pro forma LTM May 23 leverageable EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) of €273m, including €26m of adjustments, according to buyside sources. Total gross and total net leverage are 5.4x and 4.8x respectively.

“They grew by double digits even in the pandemic,” said a second buysider. “They’ve got some higher CapEx around the corner, but nothing I don’t see them swallowing. At the end of the day, mummy and daddy are going to keep sending their precious ones to the pricey school.”

As 9fin covered earlier this week, Luxembourg-based business services firm IQ-EQ priced a dual-tranche A&E to 2028— with both the euro and dollar legs tightening. The €500m euro leg landed at E+475bps and an OID of 99 (from price talk of E+475-500 and 98). Meanwhile, the $520m dollar leg — upsized from a $500m minimum deal size — also tightened to S+475bps and OID of 98.5 (from price talk of S+475-500bps and 98).

Dutch meat wholesaler Group of Butchers prepared a small slab of €20m in the form of a 2029 TLB add-on. It priced at E+500bps with a 0% floor. 

The leveraged loan portfolio manager said: “I’m not surprised they’re doing it right now during a temporary period of strength”.

British aerospace components manufacturer Ontic upsized a 2028 TLB A&E to $957m (from an initial maximum of $937m). Pricing didn’t encounter turbulence, tightening from price talk of S+CSA+425 bps and 99-99.5 OID to S+CSA+400 bps and 99.5 OID.

Rounding off the primary deals from the week and staying in Britain, financial data business ION Analytics priced a €70m TLB add-on due 2028 — landing at E+400bps.

Looking over at the secondary market, a €106m BWIC landed this week which comprised of 36 EUR loans in total.

The largest tranche came from Telco UPC at €9.5m, second largest from stressed packager Kloeckner Pentaplast (€6.2m) and the third largest was distressed Swiss elevator components supplier Wittur (€5.9m).

The full list is below.

Forward pipeline

Link:Table