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This is our weekly newsletter on all the latest trends, breaking news, and deep-dive coverage in European leveraged finance. Explore all our market wraps here.

Volatility finally tapered off to levels befitting the middle of August — maybe market participants were focusing on more pressing issues?

As Deutsche Bank’s Macro Strategy team put it: “The 8-day closing fall [of the VIX] from 38.57 last Monday to 16.19 Wednesday night is the 3rd largest since the index was first calculated in 1990, only behind two successive 8-day periods in early November 2008.”

“The volatility definitely jolted the market, but we’ve now seen a recovery,” one sellsider said. “The cuspier names considering syndication may be hesitant, waiting to see how September opens.”

One reason for calm was the latest US inflation print, which came largely in line with expectations, but was the slowest print since March 2021: rising +2.9% YoY (vs the expected +3.0%).

The narrative remains for a 25bps cut at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on 17 September, stopping short of the 50bps some in the market have been asking for.

All eyes are now on Jackson Hole next week, before US non-farm payrolls data on 6 September.

“For those seeking syndication in September, our best advice is to see how a few data points shake out first, but don’t wait too long,” the sellsider added.

According to 9fin sources, the September visible forward calendar is around €16bn.

Link: Table. Charts by Fatima Kane | fatima@9fin.com

A second sellsider expects primary activity to pick up more meaningfully in October, with issuers wary of how much pushback would persist from July, citing shelved TMF and Odido repricing deals.

To the market’s credit, new money supply has slowly but surely increased as macro concerns subside — a trend we’ve been following on both sides of the pond (here and here).

After persistent complaints over valuation mismatches between buyers and sellers, we may finally be past the worst.

As noted by David Allen, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at AlbaCore, in his latest credit market update: “While sponsors may not believe it is the optimal time to exit a portfolio company today, there has been a clear trend of using the strength of the credit market to position capital structures in a way that will best facilitate a future sale” — a theme 9fin has written about here.

On the topic of docs, check out our latest European High Yield Covenant Pushback Trends Report, a follow up to our H1 2024 European High Yield Covenant Trends Report.

As we did last year, we’ll be putting together a pipeline round-up before issuance kicks off again in September — keep an eye out.

Get in touch at marketing@9fin.com to request 9fin's weekly leveraged loan movers, high yield bond movers and forward pipeline.

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European LevFin Wrap — Pipeline prepared as sentiment swells

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