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European Private Credit Review H1 24 — Maturity makes a market
Devin McGinley
•9 min read
There’s been a lot of talk lately about the so-called golden era of private credit coming to an end, but the flipside of that may be that the market is maturing.
After a steep drop at the start of the year, European dealmaking turned a corner in the second quarter of 2024. Competition with syndicated loans has persisted, but also provided opportunities for direct lenders and bank arrangers to collaborate in hybrid-style deals.
Fundraising is proving that size matters: there were 36 funds raised in the first half of the year, for a total of $60.9bn globally, and their average size has reached a record $1.7bn — up from $588m over the past three years.
We expect to see a more concentrated market going forward, with larger players taking greater share and snapping up smaller firms. More experienced and/or specialised lenders have the best chance of remaining competitive.
Deals are back — but still lagging Q4 23
Dealmaking returned to the European private credit market in the second quarter of 2024, but amid continued competitive pressure and market uncertainty, it remained well short of the pace observed at the close of 2023.
According to our data, the total number of private credit transactions rose 22% from 139 over the first quarter to 170 in the second, bringing the total deal count for H1 24 to 309. That is down from 353 in H2 23 — a roughly 12% drop.
Much of that decline is because the fourth quarter of 2023 was so strong:
