If last year’s word of the year was “unprecedented”, then in 2021 that accolade surely goes to “transitory”. Explosive global pent-up demand released as lockdown restrictions eased into the summer has wreaked havoc on supply chains that are struggling to keep pace, pushing prices of commodities to multi-year records. But many are debating whether the inflationary effects will be transitory, or whether they will linger around for longer and force central banks to raise base rates much sooner than is currently being signalled.

However, one commodity story this week we’ve been keeping an eye on is separate from the robust demand, focussed instead on civil unrest in a West-African country.

Aluminium prices this week soared to their highest levels since May 2011 after news of a special forces-led coup in Guinea emerged, raising concerns about severe disruption in bauxite supply. The country is the world’s largest producer of bauxite, the primary source of aluminium, exporting 66.2 million tonnes during 2020.

A rising Aluminum price trend was already noticeable in the past year, so the latest increase shouldn’t be too surprising for those sourcing it as a raw material. But the market seems mainly concerned over potential Aluminium supply cuts from China, the world’s largest aluminium producer, which reportedly sources 55% of bauxite from Guinea.