A lot of surprise has been expressed by the speed and magnitude of the recovery in risk asset prices since mid-March. Some markets are now back above levels seen before Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border. But the economic backdrop is not the same, say the naysayers. Commodity prices remain much higher, with heightened concerns about energy security and supply of key inputs. Policymakers are more hawkish on rate rises to combat rampant inflation despite concerns of their impacts on growth prospects and haven’t tempered their policies due to the conflict.

So, what is happening? The rally in equities appears to be a violent technical squeeze. But the economist in me cannot explain how tech stock splits increase enterprise value, in the case of Tesla by one whole VW market cap. But for now, BTFD is the dominant trend. It worked great for the past two years, but will it work in the absence of the fed put?