Private lenders are circling not only hung deals, but also refis and add-ons for leveraged finance credits that won’t see the light of the syndicated loan market, as issuers doubt the liquidity available from non-private European lenders. Private lenders, meanwhile, are enjoying fund inflow from retail investors alone of around €2bn to €3bn a month.

This dry powder has created a temporary inverted market where private credit could take on larger shares of struggling LBOs – and private lenders are confident they will see more slices of such deals coming their way.

“It’s been a trend for the last few years, but over the past few months, the majority of business we’re seeing is companies that have turned away from syndication or failed to get it done,” the private lender said.

While the convergence of private and syndicated markets has been a known trend, this crisis exacerbated that, some speakers at SuperReturn said, with companies and sponsors now turning to private markets to solve “bigger and bigger” problems that were previously the remit of syndicates alone — and stepping across the line into liquid markets to “bail out the banks” in the case of underwritten deals.

Most mentioned was the upcoming €3bn-equivalent Boots buyout, which many speakers and attendees were confident could go (even in its entirety) to the private debt market following the poor market reception and performance of Morrisons and Asda respectively. Morrisons ended up privately placing €545m of 4.75% senior secured notes earlier this month, reportedly at 85, following a tepid response from the syndicated market.

However, it is unclear whether private debt markets will be able to swallow the Boots deal – “It is a big, big deal that will show the health of either the syndicated or private market,” said one leveraged finance analyst.

The push towards private debt has been helped along by the convergence of pricing points in each market. “94 and E+550 bps is already the private debt sweet spot,” said a third private lender, with another arguing that – with the expectation of further cost inflation and supply chain pain for companies – the private debt market allows for cleaner negotiations with companies if it underperforms. Because of this, one investment manager speaking at the event characterised the private markets as a “safe haven to put capital to work in the next few months”.

Another current pocket of activity for the private markets comes from companies who are keen to tap the market to bridge liquidity needs without alerting the rest of the wider syndicated market. “We’re getting calls every day from companies asking what they can do for us,” said a second private lender.

Nonetheless, some speakers argued that the most attractive opportunities remained in secondary syndicated deals – specifically those trading down in the 80s with a sponsor exit plan in the coming year or two, of which they said are around 20 to 30 such names in Europe. Difficulties in execution, however, persist, meaning prices frequently do not reflect actual trades.