Macro Prophet — banging yuan
- Dan Alderson
Thirty spokes converge at one hub;
What is not there makes the wheel useful.
At a time of high tension between the US and China over trade, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s trip to China has revealed a mystery at the heart of Chinese economic policy. It is worth attention as China itself is a mystery element in western investors’ forward outlooks.
The distinct lack of clarity following Yellen’s meetings on who is even running the People’s Bank of China should be warning that big changes are afoot in how the country’s economy will be run and how it will face the outside world. This chaotic unknown is largely unexplored in most strategy briefings you will read these days, since China’s impact on financial markets has been dampened after a promising start to 2023. Contrast its frequency of mention with the start of the year, when credit and equity analysis had to consider a reopening China’s upward impact on growth, commodity prices and CPI.