They were maps that lived, maps that one could study, frown over, add to; maps, in short, that really meant something.”

The past week won’t go down as the most eventful in July, let alone the year, but it was one in which investors tried to firm up their outlook on central bank rates and second half asset performance. For those in the CLO market it was a chance to take a better reading of what’s coming down the line in primary.

And for me, it provided a few tests to my thesis that a recession is on the way later this year or early 2024. It’s a good idea to challenge the basis of one’s own assumptions and to ask what changes if they’re wrong. Some bets may need shelving, while components of a strategy may stay valid.