News and Analysis
Private credit outlook 2025 — direct lenders hope, again, for an M&A comeback
- Anna Russi
•3 min read
For direct lenders, 2025’s resolutions carry a hint of déjà vu.
Market participants are once again pinning their hopes on a surge in M&A activity after another year of stalled dealmaking.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the total deal value of private equity activity was below $150bn for the first time since 2020, according to Pitchbook’s quarterly breakdown report.
Total deal count was the lowest since 2015. The all-time high in dry powder held by private equity firms, pressure from LPs for exits, and the Fed interest rate cuts were not enough to unlock M&A activity. The lackluster performance underscored how high valuation expectations, macroeconomic uncertainty, and regulatory overhangs continued to weigh on the market.
