Benchmark prior transactions, bonds, loans or company profiles using over 300 credit metrics.

Comparables

AI transcripts & instant analysis, making earnings season easier than ever.

Earnings

A full suite of ESG data and analysis. Built for your workflow

Spot undervalued credits and potential future restructurings with our purpose-built tools.

Distressed and Restructuring

We use AI to aggregate newsflow from 2,000 sources, and deliver it to your inbox quicker than anyone else.

News

Full Financial profiles with 3 statements, KPIs, segment splits & credit metrics. All traced to source documents.

Financials

New deal analysis and covenant comparison tools, understand key risks in seconds not days.

Covenants

We've successfully predicted more than 65 price sensitive events - before they happened.

Deal predictions

Say goodbye to CTRL + F with our powerful search. Thousands of documents text searchable for any keyword or phrase.

Search

Track high yield deals from issuance through to maturity, with integrated legal, credit and ESG analysis.

High Yield Bonds

Shine a light on private markets with 9fin's news and legal analysis of syndicated loans

Leveraged Loans

21st century tech and expert analysis to help CLO teams make informed decisions faster.

Structured Credit 

Find information others can't see in one of the fastest growing corners of finance

Private Credit 

Sami Vukelj

Anna Russi

Peter Benson

Tariffs, interest rates, inflation, and regulation were top of mind for private credit investors in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election this week.

In our conversations with lenders in the days following, they expressed a mix of concern and tempered optimism when mulling over the policy shifts that could result from the incoming administration, ranging from potential trade wars and deviations on the rate cutting path to favorable firings and new appointments at regulatory bodies like the SEC.

For Luke Chan, partner at HighVista Strategies, an $11bn AUM specialty alts firm, there are counteracting forces from the administration that are likely to emerge.

He said that the president elect seems to indicate a preference for lower interest rates, which could boost overall growth and add demand for private credit. While at the same time, certain policy proposals, such as a new tariff regime and the resulting trade war, could offset downward moves in interest rates by introducing new inflationary pressures, Chan said.

Trump’s proposed new tariff regime could involve a universal tariff of 10% on all imports and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on imports from China. This was raised repeatedly as the most relevant and readily apparent impact of the election by private credit investors.

“Every lender and investment committee that meets from now until policy certainty is attained will scrutinize the impact of tariffs on a potential borrowers’ financial outlook, to the extent that the borrower is in a relevant industry,” said Chan.

Chan clarified that this doesn’t mean that deals won’t happen, or that the impact of tariffs will be purely negative, as it will impact various companies and industries differently — a domestically- sheltered manufacturer may be helped by the tariffs, for example, while an export-oriented manufacturer may be hurt by it.

Another lender agreed that some sectors may benefit from such proposals, but it is unlikely to create a dramatic shift in lending strategies.

“There’s some chatter about target industries being impacted by potential tariffs as opportunity but no change in capital deployment,” they said.

Another lender we spoke to was focused on the impact that the presidency could have on Fed policy, noting that US treasury yields spiked yesterday alongside elevated inflation expectations. Some economists suggested that the Fed’s rate cutting campaign could be paused or slowed down if inflationary pressures intensify next year.

The second lender noted that most of their loans are floating rate, so that a potential higher-for-longer scenario under Trump could be good for lenders’ investment income.

“The 10-year reacted strongly, but does this mean that the Fed is forced to pause its easing cycle and that SOFR moves back to 5.3%?” said the second lender.

On the same topic, a private credit lawyer told 9fin that if rates stay higher than anticipated and inflation remains elevated, the expected deluge of M&A investors are hoping for in 2025 might not bear out. However, they anticipate GPs adapting when it comes to making deals work, even if rates end up somewhere higher than expected.

“People are banking on yields coming down to invigorate M&A activity. If yields go back up or stay static, what will that do for for M&A? People are just going to have to accept that that's the world they live in and they're gonna have to do deals in a higher rate environment,” said a private credit lawyer.

A cautiously optimistic sentiment was echoed on FS KKR Capital Corp.’s earning call, when co-president and CIO Dan Pietrzak said that their initial view is that rates will continue to trend down, although it might be at a slower pace than what they expected a few months ago.

“As it relates to the potential impact of the presidential election, I think our initial gut is while rates will continue to trend down, it probably will be a little bit slower than maybe we would have guessed 30 or 60 days ago,” said Pietrzak.

Another consideration that was raised regards potential changes at the SEC, which could have major implications for the regulatory environment that private credit and the broader private markets contend with in the next administration.

As we’ve discussed in previous coverage, certain members of the current administration (particularly the FTC’s Lina Khan and the SEC’s Gary Gensler) have had a more aggressive approach when it comes to anti-trust enforcement and regulating private markets. Participants we spoke to expect that more industry-friendly figures being appointed to those agencies will reverse some of these regulatory trends.

“The anti-trust push is likely to end, in addition likely no real risk on more changes to carry taxation,” said one private equity source, adding that Trump’s election will also likely mean that tax provisions introduced in 2017 are extended beyond their current deadline of the end of 2025. The law reduced the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35% and capped deductions for state and local taxes at $10k.

Hooman Yazhari, partner at Michelman & Robinson, told 9fin that less regulation could make private credit firms less competitive vis-à-vis banks if the Trump administration deregulates the banks, therefore reducing the advantage private credit firms have.

"Counter-intuitively, lower regulatory hurdles for all may actually not be that great for private credit lenders, because one of their superpowers today is they are not really regulated as compared to the traditional banks. Less regulation for all, including the banks, is their kryptonite” said Yazhari.

Another direct lender told 9fin that, aside from some of the more obvious potential implications of tariffs, the lack of policy certainty and explicit detail on potential new legislation means that there isn’t a whole lot for them to work with when it comes to preparing for upcoming changes.

“No one knows what he wants to do or is going to do, so everything is kind of in flux.”

Find out more about what we do for Private Credit here.

For private credit, a Trump presidency may be a double-edged sword

9fin team

9fin raises $50m to build next generation of debt capital markets technology

Tanvi Gupta

Sam Robinson

Charlie Dinning

US CLO portfolio overlap — Standing out from the crowd

Will Macadam

Winding Up — Black Friday rush

David Brooke

The Unicrunch — BlackRock’s holiday shopping, LP diet trends, and downwardly mobile lenders

Turbocharge your trading desk P&L, with the market's fastest news alerts.

Sales & Trading

Save time, react faster to news, outperform your peers.

Asset Managers & Hedge funds

Save time, pitch more efficiently, and win business.

Investment Banks

Spot novel covenants, save time drafting and win business.

🍪 Our Cookies

For private credit, a Trump presidency may be a double-edged sword

Read all our public content for free

Recently Published

9fin raises $50m to build next generation of debt capital markets technology

US CLO portfolio overlap — Standing out from the crowd

Winding Up — Black Friday rush

The Unicrunch — BlackRock’s holiday shopping, LP diet trends, and downwardly mobile lenders

What are you waiting for?