After SoftBank Group posted a net loss of ¥1.12trn ($7.1bn) and an increased debt stack for the three months ended September, attention now turns to the situation the firm may find itself in the current period.
AI-related stocks have been subject to wild volatility since the end of SoftBank’s reporting period while the firm itself faces longer-term refinancing pressures.
OpenAI exposure
OpenAI has been the core of the Japanese conglomerate’s non-listed portfolio, as well as the core driver of its growing debt pile. While its valuation has grown since March 2026, to $1.25trn last week, that number may be more vulnerable to shocks:
- OpenAI announced an $850bn post-money valuation on 31 March. This was likely the baseline valuation SoftBank used on its balance sheet at the quarter ended June 2026
- Last week’s $11bn fundraising put the AI firm at a pre-money valuation of $1.25trn, likely meaning a $1.26trn post-money market cap
- But investor pushback against Anthropic’s planned IPO, which is pushing its valuation towards $1trn from a targeted $1.5trn earlier, suggests a fair estimate for OpenAI’s own valuation today may be closer to its March valuation than the $1.25trn touted last week
Should that be the case though, SoftBank’s...
