Welcome to Taking the Credit, 9fin’s weekly observations on the issues affecting the European private credit market. Find out more about what we do for private credit.

Trick-or-treat? Sinister images have been knocking at the door this Halloween. Gigantic funds amassing capital from LPs have left smaller new entrants facing nightmarish scenarios.

The uncertainty connected with next week’s US elections remains frightening — change is what scares investors the most, as a debt advisor admitted to 9fin.

At least, the spectre of taxes from the new UK government’s budget has been more benign than expected. From April 2025, the new tax rate on carried interest will be 32%, which is up from the 28% on the share of profits private equity managers buying and selling UK companies currently pay — but much less than the 45% they had feared.

With much instability at macro level, it might be early to call spooky season over, but a somewhat positive outlook came from our European Private Credit Review Q3 24 which ran earlier this week. M&A activity is expected to pick up — this time for real — in 2025, with at least 90 potential European LBOs currently in the market.

After all, December is at the door, and all we want for Christmas are deals.