News and Analysis
US CLO outlook 2026 — Unwrapping CLO forecasts
- 9fin team
•11 min read
US CLOs are expected to stand strong and healthy in the new year, albeit with a few uncertainties in the market based on 9fin’s review of bank outlook reports.
Combined US BSL and middle-market CLO (also referred to as private credit CLOs) new issuance is projected to range from $150bn to $230bn in 2026, pacing similarly to 2025, according to bank research.
Across research desks, middle-market CLOs are estimated to contribute to around 20% of US new issuance next year. Middle-market CLOs made up 19.8% of new issuance this year, according to 9fin data, which is comparable to 2024.
Research desks expect repricing activity will lean heavily towards resets over refinancings in the coming year, as in Europe, and a considerable amount of deals will be eligible for reset or refinancing as they exit non-call protection in 2026.
CLO ETFs reached new heights this year with inflows totaling $15bn year to date and AUM now over $34bn, according to 9fin data.
Next year however ETFs may not be able to maintain the same amount of appetite in a rate-cutting environment, while US banks are predicted to bolster demand along with Japanese banks and insurance companies.
