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US IG Wrap — Oracle lawsuit brings ‘fake it till you make it’ vibes to IG, Goldman leads bank surge

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Market Wrap

US IG Wrap — Oracle lawsuit brings ‘fake it till you make it’ vibes to IG, Goldman leads bank surge

William Hoffman's avatar
  1. William Hoffman
5 min read

It’s not every week that IG bond investors file a lawsuit against one of the largest tech companies in the world. And it’s not every week that you get a new record-sized issuance from a bank. This week we got both.

Ohio Carpenters’ Pension Plan is leading a new lawsuit filed this week against cloud computing services company Oracle, alleging that the company and its syndicate of underwriting banks made false and materially misleading statements and omissions in connection with a September 2025 multi-tranche senior note offering used to fund AI infrastructure, according to the filing.

The investors say they were blindsided when Oracle priced $38bn of new bank notes to fund its AI data center build out just seven weeks after investors backed an $18bn publicly syndicated bond package in September.

Indeed, the bonds issued in September have sold down by around 10 points since then — that’s price not spread for IG investors not used to seeing tech credits in distressed territory.

But on the other hand, some have argued that’s the risk investors take when they back horses in the AI build out race, where some of the world’s biggest tech companies are selling dreams and almost adopting a ‘fake it till you make it’ mentality typically associated with the startup world.

Oracle is no startup — it produced $16.1bn in revenue for the fiscal quarter that ended in November, which is up 15% YoY — but like many tech companies chasing the AI dragon it does have a lot more capex spending on the horizon. If they weren’t before, investors are acutely aware that more bond supply is on the way this year.

“Throughout most of last year, people were talking about enormous quantums of supply,” one banker said. “Supply projections are massive at nearly $2trn of IG supply this year, and everybody was saying it was going to be driven by data center funding. So for investors to say, ‘We didn't know they were going to do more’…I don't know if I'm buying that.”

Via 9fin data

Bank bonanza

This week was all about the banks as five borrowers priced $40bn across 19 tranches.

Goldman Sachs was the boldest of them all pricing a staggering $16bn six-part bond, which is not only the largest deal the bank has issued, but also the biggest deal ever from one of the big six US banks.

Goldman’s previous record was a $12bn six-part deal in January 2022, while the previous biggest US bank deal ever was a $15bn six-part deal from Bank of America in April 2021, according to 9fin data.

Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley each priced $8bn, JP Morgan was out with a $6bn deal and BNY Mellon raised $2bn leading to total supply of $57bn for the week.

Via 9fin data

“I don't think from an overall supply perspective it was a surprise, but for me, Goldman was a little bit bigger than I would have anticipated,” the banker said.

While it was a lot of supply this week, banks typically front load their supply needs and most market participants are calling for a $50bn-$100bn year-over-year decline in US bank supply, as we detailed earlier this week.

That front loading is all the more important this year as issuers, bankers and investors alike are staring down a host of geopolitical risks: US intervention in Venezuela, protests in Iran, Trump’s posturing over Greenland, threats to Federal Reserve independence and cracks in the NATO alliance, to name a few.

The fears are evident in tight SSA spreads as our European colleagues covered this week, signaling demand for safer investments.

“Pretty much any topic that you would think about as derailing the markets we have going on right now, and yet the market is strong like a bull,” the banker said. “Spreads are really tight so why not just take advantage of it now? Because if any of these things, or all of these things, move one way it can tip the scale.”

Despite those geopolitical risks and expectations for some $2trn of gross IG bond supply this year, demand was still strong.

“It's certainly a lot of supply in a short space of time, but it's been very well absorbed,” one sell side source said. “Even with the banks offering little to no new issue concessions, which is to be expected.”

Via 9fin data

Energized M&A

The front half of the week did see some corporate M&A supply come through before the banks hit their stride.

Vistra Energy acted quickly to price a $2.25bn two part bond package that will help fund its $4bn acquisition of Cogentrix Energy’s gas plant in a deal that was announced just last week.

Similarly, Antero Resources priced $750m SUNs due 2036 to partially fund its $2.8bn acquisition of HG Acquisition that was announced in December 2025.

The energy sector remained active on the week with a $3bn three-part senior bond package from Energy Transfer to repay commercial paper borrowings.

This is just the start of what sources said will be an active year for energy M&A as low gas prices make some of the lower-rated oil names more likely to sell.

Elsewhere in the M&A pipeline, Boston Scientific kicked off what is expected to be an active year for healthcare and pharmaceutical M&A. The medical device maker this week announced plans to buy medtech firm Penumbra in its second biggest takeover ever at $14.5bn.

Boston Scientific has been more active in Euros in recent years and hasn’t issued US dollar debt since 2020. In a presentation to investors this week it said it expects to finance the $11bn cash portion of the acquisition with cash on hand and new debt.

Netflix’s $82bn takeover of Warner Bros Discovery was already one of the biggest deals in the M&A pipeline but it may have gotten a little bit bigger for bond investors this week.

With Netflix stock falling by more than 20% over the last three months, the company is prepared to make its bid an all-cash offer, which would likely increase the debt funding the streamer is looking to raise and even hasten the timeline to do so.

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