“Copeland is a deal that bankers won’t just jump into blindly,” said a levfin banker. “They’ve tested the waters and realized that there's good receptivity for it, so I think it's a sign that the markets are there for it, and open to a large deal like this.”

Part of the reason there’s so much pent-up demand is that March was slow for primary. There have also been strong secondary gains in riskier paper this month, amid high yield fund inflows. Triple-C debt is up 6.5% YTD, compared to gains of 4.4% for the overall index, per ICE BofA data.

“Some companies were still trying to wrap up their quarters last month, so for the most part, none of that paper launched in March,” said the banker. “The market is primed for supply, and there are issuers or borrowers that are getting ready. The Fed next week could be a catalyst.”

Heartland of darkness

Heartland Dental’s deal is one to watch, as a potential barometer of investor sentiment for sponsor-backed paper.

The company, which is backed by KKR and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, is looking to extend its $1.85bn TLB to 2028 and raise a new $500m SSN due 2028; proceeds from the bond issue will be used to partially refinance existing debt.

Sources tell us the deal has received heavy scrutiny, as buysiders weigh pressure to put money to work against the borrower’s highly massaged credit metrics. The OM lists 10 separate add-backs totaling nearly $45m, which take adjusted EBITDA to $100m.

Heartland’s sponsors may be encouraged by the progress of another KKR-backed deal this week: Signature Aviation, which accelerated and tightened the pricing on a $400m fungible add-on TLB to help fund a $650m dividend.

Then again, the recent refinancing for Internet Brands (also backed by KKR) didn’t exactly sail through the market. The company didn’t manage to take out all of its $4.7bn term loan, and so was left with a $500m stub that matures next year.

The tough syndication might be partly down to the sheer size of the loan it was looking to refinance. “Pushing $4.7bn of paper through this market is a tough ask,” said a source following the process.

Talen Energy is another example of the push and pull between buyside and sellside this week.

The company is raising $1.2bn of SSNs due 2028, a $580m 2030 TLB and a $470m 2030 TLC to fund its exit from bankruptcy. But the structure and terms have been heavily tweaked, for example with a raft of covenant concessions.

Some investors remain cautious on the credit given its track record of restructurings and the pressure of high commodity prices.

So: there are clearly some concessions to be had in primary. But even so, some buysiders think there will be a lot more lender-friendly terms on offer in the future.

“There will be margin pressure and reduced free cash flow from higher interest costs for these businesses, so it makes sense to wait for the reset,” said Adam Abbas, co-head of fixed income at Harris Associates.

Home discomforts

On that note, first-quarter earnings have been a mixed bag so far, but overall probably better than many had expected.

Sources highlighted a solid quarter from printing company Cimpress, which has been tackling inflationary pressures and was downgraded by S&P earlier this year. On the other side of the spectrum, Hellman & Friedman’s home goods retailer At Home reported disappointing numbers as the pandemic boom in home improvement tailed off.

As ever, the question is where things go from here. Given concerns about the broader macro outlook in the second half of the year, companies with upcoming maturities might be incentivized to tap the markets now, before earnings deteriorate further.

“Economic data continues to be mixed,” said a portfolio manager. “If earnings look OK, you might want to see if you can do a deal. There’s not a lot of risk for your cost of capital going down or up, so if you have a 2024-2026 maturity you might want to see what you can do.”

Theme park operator Six Flags did just that this week, raising $800m 7.25% SUNs due 2031 that will fund a tender offer for its 2024 notes.

Investors seemed keen to help the company clear its maturity runway, even amid doubts about the trajectory of its turnaround plan as it tries to push a more upscale theme park experience.

Elsewhere this week, we took a look at the upsized $935m incremental TLB for insurance brokerage BroadStreet Partners as it acquires Blackstone’s Westland Insurance Group, and a $100m add-on loan for healthcare laundry company ImageFIRST, slated to fund acquisitions.

Also this week: we did a deep dive into how investors and companies are positioning for a potential regulatory backlash to the explosion of online gaming and sports betting that has become an area of huge growth.

Also on the ESG front, we looked into the sudden distress of Blackstone’s food sanitation firm PSSI, which has lost big contracts because it was employing employing children to clean slaughterhouses.

Plus, a vibe-check on the SOFR transition: sluggish capital markets and rising base rates are creating a logjam of SOFR amendments in the run up to the final disappearance of Libor at the end of June this year.

Private vs public

Copeland’s sponsors are taking advantage of the resurgent demand in broadly syndicated markets to take out the company’s private credit facility. We’ve already covered the deal in depth: get in touch if you want to check out our legal team’s QuickTake report.

But there’s still plenty going on in the private credit space. Earlier this week, we reported that cancer-care provider OneOncology has turned to private credit to help finance its $2.1bn buyout by TPG.

Private credit is becoming ever more influential, so borrowers and sponsors are increasingly running dual-track processes to evaluate both private and syndicated options. “I think you’re going to see more of this two-pronged approach now,” said Abbas at Harris Associates.

The growing heft of direct lending was on full display at a well-attended conference in Florida this week, organized by DealCatalyst and the LSTA. Our growing private credit team was there, reporting on fears of increased regulatory attention.

Some of this attention may be related to the industry’s push towards retail investors, which Tim Lyne — the CEO of veteran direct lender Antares Capital — described on our Cloud 9fin podcast this week as the “democratization” of private credit.

If you want more private credit content, here’s a link to watch the “Borrower Health Check” panel, which was moderated by our very own Will Caiger-Smith.

Other stuff

Gen X bankers warn Gen Z content creators: don’t give up day job (Financial Times)

Microsoft’s $75bn deal for Activision Blizzard rejected by UK (WSJ)

Why no buyer has emerged for First Republic (WSJ)

I worked at CNN and reported on Tucker Carlson. He was never invincible (NYT)

Dish Network rating lowered to CCC+ on cash flow uncertainty (S&P)

Jefferies, Sumitomo Mitsui expand investment banking ties (Bloomberg)

Coinbase offers a fiery response to the SEC’s threat of enforcement action (CNBC)

CFOs focus on building resilient supply chains, even as pandemic disruptions fade (WSJ)

Wall Street’s new trade: Covid-19 insurance claims (WSJ)