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The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has once again put oil at the forefront of geopolitical conflicts. However, the high yield energy market has largely taken the news in stride so far, similar to how investors reacted to strikes on Iran last year.

A regime change in Venezuela represents one of the largest upside risks to the global oil supply outlook for 2026-2027 and beyond, JP Morgan analysts said, putting a bearish outlook on oil prices that have already dropped sharply in recent months.

But such dynamics were not reflected in oil futures on Monday, the first trading day after the strike. US benchmark WTI oil futures closed up 1.74% at $58.32 per barrel on Monday, while the International benchmark Brent crude futures closed up 1.66% at $61.76 per barrel. Both indices fell on Tuesday.

However, in a sign of decoupling, the stock prices of a few high yield exploration & production (E&P) companies — including SM Energy, Crescent Energy, Northern Oil & Gas, and Permian Resources — all traded down on Monday.

The movement priced in the notion that Venezuelan oil production could rise on the back of the conflict, sources said, but the movement of high yield bonds in the secondary market was minimal — likely reflecting the complexity, cost and time it would take for any investment to start generating higher output.

The high yield market reaction was similar to that during previous geopolitical tensions, such as Israel’s attack on Iran last June. The uncertainty around short-term oil prices pushed for greater primary market activity, but volatility was soon absorbed by the market.