European LevFin Wrap — Will ECB doves disrupt or drive deals?
- Ryan Daniel
Technicals are the biggest driver for European LevFin right now; president Lagarde and co. may have accelerated that.
According to Barclays FICC Research (for the week leading up to Thursday’s decision), European high yield saw the largest inflow on record since 2005. It was also the largest as a percentage of net assets since 2016.
But the backdrop for the ECB’s 25bps cut wasn’t pretty: euro area composite PMI in contractionary territory for the first time in seven months and euro area inflation beneath the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in over three years.
It’s worth remembering that as recently as mid-September, markets expected the ECB to hold rates at this meeting. It underlines the divergence we’re beginning to see between Europe and the “Goldilocks” US (faster normalisation of monetary policy expected by ECB as economic weakness seems to warrant it).
A narrative to watch until year-end is whether this puts a dampener on European issuance or merely causes issuers to hurry up over fears capital markets close.
The US election is hovering over the market, causing accelerated deal timelines as mentioned in our latest European CLO primary wrap. One investor highlighted European CLO managers are trying to price roughly 40 deals before 5 November.
The technical impact of this shouldn’t be understated as the CLO market has grabbed between 60-80% of loan market share in Europe.
“I think companies have squeezed away with deals because people need supply,” a buysider said.
A second buysider echoed that sentiment: “There’s a massive chase for paper as you don’t want to lose access to your best names.”
The transition from repricings to divi recaps offer an increase in new money but, still, investors are hoping for significant LBO activity in 2025.
For more analysis of 2024’s issuance trends, check out our Q3 loan and bond reports.
Leveraged loans
British supermarket chain Morrisons came to market to push out maturities (A&E from 2027 to 2030) on its sterling and euro loans, trimming the size of the facilities by applying £250m of cash on balance sheet.
The supermarket chain has been carefully managing its substantial debt burden this year, closing the sale of its petrol stations to fellow CD&R portco Motor Fuel Group, which raised £1.8bn cash, and closing a “ground rent financing”, which raised £330m.
Price talk for the A&E is E+450-475bps for the euros and S+525-550bps for sterling, both at 99.5. The currency split on the £1.2bn deal is yet to be determined.
This compares to outstanding margins of E+475bps on the euros and S+550bps on the sterling. These loans were €1.302bn and £500m at issue.
You can find 9fin’s breakdown of the transaction here.
Advanz Pharma, meanwhile, has increased its €305m TLB to €725m, extending maturities out three years to 2031. While investors see it as a decent credit, a combination of regulatory risks and a potential shareholder stepping back concerned some buysiders.
It comes just weeks after sponsor Nordic and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) announced that OTPP would not be going ahead with a planned investment in Advanz.
“That’s what I liked a lot — OTPP would come in and it would mean additional acquisitions, making the company stronger, but that’s not happening,” said a third buysider. “It’s a standalone business run by a midsized private equity company but not more.”
The deal priced at E+425bps and 99.5 versus IPTs of E+450bps. Check out our comprehensive deal report here.
Digital marketplace AutoScout24 priced its dual-tranche 2031 TLBs at S+350bps ($1.06bn) and E+375bps (€1.5bn), with 99.75 OID for both legs. Price talk was at S+350bps for dollars and E+375-400bps for euros and 99.5 OID for both tranches.
As we covered in our preview here, the transaction will refinance its existing debt and fuel its acquisition of Trader, Canada’s leading online automotive marketplace and software provider, from Thoma Bravo.
“It has decent economics,” said a portfolio manager. “But we're hesitant to jump into highly leveraged deals, especially given how we view our broader portfolio. The outlook isn't exactly rosy for other names right now. We are taking a wait-and-see approach.”
French schools network AD Education is out with a €700m 2031 TLB with IPTs at E+400-425bps and 99.5, and sticking with the sector, Galileo Global Education has upsized its 2028 TLB to €650m (from €350m). Price talk is at E+375bps and 99.75, tightening from price talk of 99.5.
Wealth management solutions company FNZ is out with multi-tranche 2031 TLBs including $950m (price talk at S+475-500bps and 98-98.5), $650m-equivalent of euros (price talk at E+500-525bps and 98-98.5) and $500m-equivalent of sterling (price talk at S+575-600bps).
Initial feedback during the pre-marketing stage was mixed, as reported, given some weak topline figures and a DDTL for earn-outs in the deal.
And there’s another issuer repricing its fresh syndicated debt after refinancing an existing private credit tranche just earlier this year (read more here). Deutsche Fachpflege is aiming to cut margin to E+400-425bps (from E+450bps existing) on its €440m 2031 TLB, following in Eleda’s footsteps earlier this month.
French specialty chemicals distributor Safic-Alcan is out to reprice its €470m 2029 TLB. Price talk is E+350-375bps from E+400bps existing.
German software company SUSE launched a dual-tranche repricing of its 2030 TLBs. The €550m tranche is guiding towards E+350-375bps (from E+400bps existing) and the $673m tranche is guiding towards S+350-375bps (from S+400bps existing).
UK catering and hospitality group WSH Investments is repricing its £589m 2031 TLB. Price talk is at S+500bps from S+550bps existing. OID is targeted to go from 99.5 to 100.
Here’s a look at what’s currently in market:
Here’s a look at what recently priced:
Weekly leveraged loan movers
High yield
Banks have launched a deal for German specialty chemicals supplier ASK Chemicals. €325m of 2029 SSNs will repay its senior secured TLB and repay a portion of the Parent HoldCo PIK. IPTs are in the “low-to-mid 10s”. This is the only bond deal currently in market.
As 9fin reported prior to official announcement, UK specialist building materials supplier SIG plc came to market for €300m of 2029 SSNs, pricing at 9.75% (tightening from the 10% area).
Italian food producer La Doria priced its €125m tap issuance of SS FRNs at E+450bps and 100.75 (versus price talk of E+450bps and 100.25-100.75).
French water management company Saur upsized its blue bond issuance from €500m to €550m at 4.875% (versus IPTs of 5.375-5.5%).
Here’s a look at what recently priced:
Weekly high yield movers
Forward pipeline
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