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Winding Up — New Year, new inflation

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Market Wrap

Winding Up — New Year, new inflation

Bianca Boorer's avatar
  1. Bianca Boorer
7 min read

Winding Up is 9fin's weekly newsletter, incorporating summaries and commentary from our European distressed coverage for the past week. Sign up for this newsletter here.

European policymakers are doing everything they can to make 2025 a year of growth — which is coming with a natural side effect: inflation rising again.

Inflation in the euro area was up 2.4% in December 2024, less than 2.9% a year earlier, but more than 2.2% recorded in November 2024, according to data the Eurostat released today (17 January).

Michel Lowy, co-founder and chief executive of SC Lowy, said: “With the ECB cautiously cutting interest rates last month amid stagnating economic growth, the focus has shifted from curbing excessive price increases to addressing sluggish activity. A growing number of policymakers now advocate for rate reductions to levels that no longer hinder growth.”

“However, this policy shift could inadvertently raise borrowing costs, prompting banks to tighten lending criteria or scale back market activities to manage risk,” he cautioned.

In the UK, the trend was slightly contained with the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 2.5% in the 12 months to December 2024, down from 2.6% in November, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

William Marsters, senior sales trader at Saxo UK said on Wednesday (15 January): “UK December CPI comes in weaker than forecast which should give an excuse for UK gilts to rally today after their recent lows. This is the first time in three months the metric has fallen, and will keep the door open for a BoE rate cut next month…These inflation figures will be a welcome relief for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves.”

The pound traded down from €1.19 to €1.18 on the back of the announcement.

Rate cuts are a measure distressed issuers are expecting to see their cost of capital going down and refinancing efforts getting easier — unless, of course, it ends up deterring lenders from taking on more risks. A solution to this conundrum could be private credit, Lowy pointed out.

”In this challenging environment, private credit emerges as a compelling opportunity for investors,” said Lowy. “Its inherent flexibility allows it to navigate volatile markets and deliver potentially higher returns compared to traditional fixed-income securities, especially during periods of inflation and rising interest rates.”

Indeed, we have been seeing more and more stressed/distressed issuers trying to turn to private credit as a solution to their troubles. Lycra for instance has been trying to raise $350m in private credit since last year. Other two private deals were pitched for OneAdvanced and Voodoo last year. And yet, all three have not managed to materialise, according to 9fin sources.

On other distressed fronts, the new year is seeing some old discussions that started in 2024 and are still ongoing. Altice France is getting into the structural details of its upcoming restructuring with secured creditors. Ardagh has unveiled its restructuring plan to the steercos of its secured and unsecured creditor groups, which have gone restricted to engage in negotiations on the terms.

Legal battles also continue into 2025 with Intrum requesting that the minority group of 2025 noteholders to be held in contempt of court after the noteholders appealed the confirmation order for its Chapter 11 plan. On the other hand, the legal battle between SBB and hedge fund Fir Tree has come to an end before actually starting.

Here is the rest of what we covered this week:

This week’s news

Altice France — The French telco company is engaging in discussions with its secured creditors over the structural terms of its debt restructuring, according to 9fin sources. These include method of implementation, governance and shareholder rights, the sources said. After the two parties agree on the structure, the company will resume talks on the economic terms.

Ardagh — Some of Irish packaging solutions company’s bondholders have gone restricted to review a restructuring plan put forward by the packaging company over the holiday period, according to 9fin sources. Recent board changes at the start of the month involved the company bringing on some experts in restructuring.

Heimstaden — The Swedish real estate company is issuing new SEK and/or EUR SUNs to refinance its existing 2025 and 2026 notes via a tender offer at a purchase price of 100. The tender offer expired yesterday (16 January) 15:00 CET. 9fin’s Credit QuickTake is here.

Idorsia — The Swiss pharmaceutical company is set to obtain an extension of at least six months and an amendment of terms for its CHF 200m senior unsecured convertible bond that is due on 17 January 2025, according to 9fin sources.

Intrum — The Swedish debt collector has filed an emergency motion in the company’s Chapter 11 case on the back of the news that a minority group of Intrum’s 2025 noteholders have appealed both the confirmation order and the denial of the group’s motion to dismiss in the US Chapter 11 case, as well as the decision from the Stockholm District Court that kicked off Intrum’s restructuring process in Sweden. On Thursday (16 January) buyers of Intrum CDS protection received a 24% payout after dealers settled contracts in an auction.

Kem One — The French PVC manufacturer has hired advisors to raise new capital and address liquidity concerns, according to 9fin sources. The group has brought on PJT and Paul Weiss, the sources said, with PJT running the capital raise, according to the first source.

Peach Property — The Swiss property developer launched an up to €100m discounted tender of its €300m 4.375% November 2025 SUNs on Monday (13 January), after restarting negotiations with its bondholders, according to 9fin sources.

OQ Chemicals — The German chemicals company has received the required consent from its lenders to implement a recap deal put forward by SVP and Blantyre consensually, sources told 9fin. 97% of lenders voted in favour of the deal, according to one of the sources.

Selecta — The KKR-backed Swiss vending machine operator backed has secured a €50m new term loan from a crossholder group of existing creditors, according to 9fin sources. The interim facility provides bridge financing through a larger transaction and has a maturity of less than nine months, sources said.

SBB Fir Tree will not be liable for any legal costs the Swedish landlord accrued in the course of defending itself against litigation brought by the hedge fund over a purported covenant breach, according to an order from the English High Court dated Tuesday (14 January) and seen by 9fin.

Thames Water — The convening hearing for an alternative restructuring proposal put forward by the UK water utility’s junior creditors, which was expected to take place on Monday (20 January) has been delayed, according to 9fin sources.

Headlines

18 January — Kem One appoints advisors to raise new capital (9fin)

17 January — Thames Water Class B convening hearing delayed (9fin)

16 January — Intrum requests minority group to be held in contempt of court (9fin)

16 January — Intrum CDS auction dealers avert Europcar repeat (9fin)

16 January — OQ Chemicals receives consent for recap deal (9fin)

15 January — NatWest wins €155m judgment in legacy RMBS case (9fin)

15 January — Intrum 25s seek CDS auction payout while claiming company solvent (9fin)

14 January — SBB pays its own legal fees after Fir Tree abandons litigation (9fin)

14 January — Idorsia set to secure bond extension (9fin)

14 January — Altice France restarts discussions on structural terms with secured creditors (9fin)

13 January — Intrum 25s appeal Swedish reorganisation (9fin)

13 January — Selecta obtains €50m term loan from crossholder group (9fin)

13 January — Peach Property puts fresh liquidity to work with bond tender (9fin)

13 January — Heimstaden AB — Credit QuickTake (9fin)

10 January — Watching the Defectives — Europe Distressed/Restructuring Tracker January 2025 (9fin)

10 January — Ardagh’s bondholders review company’s restructuring plan (9fin)

Lateral moves

On 13 January, McDermott hired Alexander Wood as partner in its transactions practice in London, focusing on corporate finance, restructuring, insolvency, and special situations.

On 6 January, Akin Gump promoted 22 lawyers to partnership, with the most notably in London being Dougall Meston, Chris Parrott, and Julian Veshi (corporate - including restructuring) as well as Qasam Mahmood (investment management).

Pallas Partners promoted Kimmie Fearnside and Nick Turvey to partners on 1 January. Fearnside has a broad commercial and financial litigation practice focusing on high value court disputes and Turvey acts for asset managers, financial institutions and insolvency practitioners on complex financial disputes, sovereign debt matters, and contentious insolvencies.

Weekly Declines

Top bond movers (link to full screener on the 9fin platform)

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