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Winding Up — Trump presents challenge to distressed credits with prospect of inflationary pressure
Bianca Boorer
+9fin team
•6 min read
Winding Up is 9fin's weekly newsletter, incorporating summaries and commentary from our European distressed coverage for the past week. Find out more about what we do for distressed here.
Market participants are providing their insights on what Donald Trump’s re-election on Tuesday (5 November) means for the world of finance.
Fidelity International said the immediate reaction to the news was the cost of borrowing and stocks all rose. Rising interest rates is not welcome news for distressed credits who are already struggling to service their debt and get refinancings over the line.
But what about Trump’s future plans?
The “Republican candidate has promised to ‘end inflation’, cut taxes and interest rates, reduce immigration and impose tariffs on imported goods such as Chinese electric cars. But markets see these goals as incompatible and instead are betting on higher inflation and higher interest rates,” Fidelity said.
How will this affect us in the UK?
Fidelity says that higher inflation and interest rates in the US doesn’t automatically mean the same here, but investors who know they can make more from US government bonds may decide that they won’t accept a substantially lower yield from the UK equivalent. Gilt yields affect other borrowing costs such as mortgage rates so the re-election of Donald Trump may, by extension, mean higher mortgage bills here.
The fund added that a stronger dollar means a weaker pound, which makes imports of goods such as food and energy more expensive and is therefore inflationary.
Morgan Stanleyagrees with the predictions on inflation and higher budget deficits for the US government. It added how Trump’s deregulation plans could benefit certain industries like energy, financial services, pharmaceuticals and cryptocurrency whilst also creating risks for clean energy and electric vehicles.
Over in the UK, Thames Water is still super topical this week as the battle between the Class A and Class B creditors to provide the group with £3bn of much needed fresh liquidity rages on.
Monday (11 November) is the deadline for creditors to participate in the Class A group’s new money offering. On Monday 4 November, the advisors to the Class A group were calling on as many creditors as possible to participate. The Class A facility carries a price tag of 9.75% whereas the Class B facility comes in cheaper at 8%.
Yesterday (7 November) the Class B group announced that its offer was fully backstopped. The advisors to the Class B group are hosting a call at 4pm GMT today to discuss the deal with investors, sources told 9fin. Register for the call here.
Over in Europe, Altice Francehas taken its discussions with creditors private as they sign NDAs to discuss their latest proposal. German real estate company Accentro has opted for a bondholder takeover plan for its latest restructuring while Italian paper maker Pro-Gest continues to drag its feet on releasing its restructuring plan (by the end of this month) despite its €250m bond maturing next month! Swiss vending machine company Selecta’s creditors have started to organise and select advisors. In Spain, one minority creditor has thrown a spanner in the works of Codere’s restructuring plan, which completed last month.
This week’s news
Accentro — the German real estate companyhas decided to go with its 2026 bondholders’ restructuring proposal, which involves them taking over 89.9% of the company, it announced on Tuesday (5 November).
Altice France — A steering committee of the French telco’s secured creditors has signed an NDA to negotiate the company’s latest restructuring proposal, two sources close told 9fin. Reports say the company is looking for around 20% haircut in exchange for 15% equity for secured creditors.
Cerba — On 17 September Moody's downgraded the name to Caa1 on concerns of unsustainable capital structure given its weak EBITDA and cash. While the company can cover it capex, it can’t afford to pay its interest so has been burning levered FCF in recent years, and leverage continues to rise. Read 9fin’s Stressed QuickTake here.
Codere — A minority creditor of Spanish gaming company filed an appeal at the end of September to its latest restructuring, according to 9fin sources. 9fin is exclusively breaking news of the appeal, which was filed shortly before the company announced last month that it had completed a “successful” recapitalisation.
Kem One — French plastics manufacturer ended Q3 with a negative cash balance (before bank overdrafts) of €10.2m, reflecting a challenging financial position. Unfortunately, this wasn’t the only setback; EBITDA was also negative for the second time in the past four quarters — with the LTM figure falling to just €34m.
Medical Properties Trust— 9fin’s second deep-dive and Q3 earnings review of MPT aims to provide an outlook on MPT’s financial position and the challenges ahead in relation to its maturity wall. In our view the company has runway till mid-2026 or early 2027 only. Read the deep-dive here and the earnings review here.
Selecta — The Swiss vending machine operator has appointedPJT Partners and Kirkland & Ellis to explore financing options aimed at addressing its 2026 maturities. A cross-holding group of creditors has appointed Milbank as legal advisor and Houlihan Lokey as financial advisor, while an ad hoc group of first lien creditors has hired Weil as legal counsel.
SLV— The German provider of lighting fixtures, which is backed by private equity firm Ardian, and its creditors have hired advisors to discuss financing options for the business, which has been performing poorly. Lenders have hired Milbank to advise on the negotiations, while SLV is working with Rothschild, sources said.
Thames Water — Both the Class A and Class B groups are trying to rally support for their opposing new financing proposals. The Class A facility carries a price tag of 9.75% whereas the Class B facility comes in cheaper at 8%. Monday 11 November is the deadline for creditors to participate in the Class A group’s new money offering.
Pro-Gest— The Italian paper maker intends to present its creditors with a restructuring plan, which will include the disposal of some assets, by the end of November. The plan will also comprise the evaluation of existing resources and the inclusion of some new key figures in the management team to support the company’s development, according to a statement.
Hogan Lovells has expanded its restructuring practice in Italy by bringing on partners Francesco De Gennaro and Alessandro Lanzi. Gennaro focuses on restructuring and special opportunities investments and Lanzi specialises in dispute resolution particularly in bankruptcy and restructuring-related processes.
